Consensus among component methods about election outcome

PollyVote currently predicts a national two-party vote share of 53.9% for Clinton and 46.1% for Trump. There is a consensus currently dominating the six available component methods. Each of them predict a lead for Clinton.

Aggregated polls predict a vote share of 53.4% for Clinton, which is the closest to PollyVote's forecast. With a vote share of 59.7% the prediction markets deviate the most from the PollyVote forecast.

In comparison to historical elections, the Democrats' prediction of 50.0% in econometric models is noticeably low. The last time the prediction fell short of that value at that time in the campaign was the election in 2004, George W. Bush and John Kerry ran for presidency. At that time, econometric models predicted a vote share of 46.0% for the Democratic candidate John Kerry.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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