Results of a new poll administered by OpinionWorks were published. The poll asked respondents from Maryland for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
OpinionWorks poll results
Of those who replied, 54.0% said that they plan to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 25.0% indicated that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from August 18 to August 30 among 754 likely voters. The error margin is +/-3.6 percentage points, which means that the poll results for Clinton and Trump differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Hence, don't be too confident the results of an individual poll. Rather, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we convert Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. The corresponding figures are 68.4% for Clinton and 31.7% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls in Maryland sees Clinton at 69.5% of the two-party vote. Relative to her numbers in the OpinionWorks poll Clinton's poll average is 1.1 percentage points better. This margin is within the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 65.5% of the two-party vote in Maryland. This means that Polly's prediction is 2.9 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus in line with the poll's sampling error.