Results of a new poll administered by Emerson were distributed. The poll asked participants from Connecticut for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
Emerson poll results
Of those who answered the question, 50.0% said that they plan to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 35.0% said that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from September 2 to September 5, among a random sample of 1000 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.0 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. In general, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of a single poll. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, we recommend to consult combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, we convert them into two-party vote shares. The resulting figures are 58.8% for Clinton and 41.2% for Trump. On April 11 Clinton received only 54.6% in the Emerson poll and Trump received 45.5%.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The most recent PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 58.3% of the two-party vote in Connecticut. Hence, Polly's combined forecast is 0.5 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus in line with the poll's error margin.