Big-issue model shows Clinton in the lead

The Big-issue model released an updated forecast of the election outcome. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 51.1% for Clinton, and 48.9% for Trump. In comparison, on October 19 Trump was predicted to obtain 48.9% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single index models, since they may contain large errors. Rather than trusting the results from single index models, the best practice is to consult combined index models or, even better, a combined forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Comparison to other index models

Clinton currently achieves 53.3% of the two-party vote in an average of recent index models. This value is 2.2 percentage points higher than respective numbers in the Big-issue index model.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 54.0% of the two-party vote. The results of the Big-issue model for Clinton are thus 2.9 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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