Big-issue model: Clinton is in the lead

The Big-issue model enters the index models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 51.7% for Clinton, and 48.3% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

Individual index models should be treated with caution, as they can contain large errors. Instead of relying on results from single index models, forecasting research recommends to rely on combined index models or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on different methods and data.

Comparison to other index models

An average of recent index models has Clinton at 53.7% of the two-party vote. This value is 2 percentage points higher than corresponding numbers in the Big-issue index model.

The Big-issue model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast

The latest PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 53.9% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 2.2 percentage points more compared to the results of the Big-issue model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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