The DeSart & Holbrook model is part of the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will receive 39.7% of the two-party vote share in Arkansas, while Trump will win 60.3%. In comparison, on October 20, Clinton was predicted to collect 40.0% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Individual models should be regarded with caution, since they may include substantial biases. Rather than trusting the results from single models, we recommend to consult combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
The DeSart & Holbrook model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
The most recent PollyVote anticipates Trump to gain 57.6% of the two-party vote in Arkansas. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 2.7 percentage points less compared to the results of the DeSart & Holbrook model.