Arizona Republic published the results of a new poll. In this poll, participants from Arizona were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
Arizona Republic poll results
According to the results, 43.0% of interviewees would cast a ballot for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 38.0% are going to vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was in the field between October 10 and October 15. The sample size was 0 participants. There is a sampling error of +/-4.0 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls can incorporate large errors, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. At the very least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, you can convert them into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 53.1% for Clinton and 46.9% for Trump.
Results vs. other polls
Looking at an average of Arizona polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 50.9%. Relative to his numbers in the Arizona Republic poll Clinton's poll average is 2.2 percentage points worse. This deviation is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 48.7% of the two-party vote in Arizona. Hence, Polly's combined forecast is 4.4 points below his polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error indicates that this deviation is significant.