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Arizona: New Arizona Republic poll has Trump behind by 5 points

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Arizona Republic published the results of a new poll. In this poll, participants from Arizona were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.

Arizona Republic poll results
43

Clinton

38

Trump

According to the results, 43.0% of interviewees would cast a ballot for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 38.0% are going to vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.

The poll was in the field between October 10 and October 15. The sample size was 0 participants. There is a sampling error of +/-4.0 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.

Putting the results in context

Individual polls can incorporate large errors, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. At the very least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

To make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, you can convert them into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 53.1% for Clinton and 46.9% for Trump.

Results vs. other polls

Looking at an average of Arizona polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 50.9%. Relative to his numbers in the Arizona Republic poll Clinton's poll average is 2.2 percentage points worse. This deviation is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 48.7% of the two-party vote in Arizona. Hence, Polly's combined forecast is 4.4 points below his polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error indicates that this deviation is significant.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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