Arizona: DeSart model shows Trump in the lead

The DeSart model is part of the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. It currently forecasts a major vote share of 42.7% for Clinton, and 57.3% for Trump in Arizona. In comparison, on August 16, Clinton was predicted to achieve 57.3% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single models, as they can incorporate large errors. At the very least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

The DeSart model in comparison with PollyVote's prediction

The latest PollyVote forecasts Trump to gain 51.3% of the two-party vote in Arizona. The results of the DeSart model for Trump are thus 6.0 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Arizona.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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