NBC/SurveyMonkey released the results of a new national poll, in which respondents were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
NBC/SurveyMonkey poll results
Of those who answered the question, 51.0% said that they intend to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 43.0% indicated that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
The Internet poll was carried out from October 10 to October 16 with 24804 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-0.6 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls can contain large errors, which is why they should be treated with caution. Rather, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, we convert them into two-party vote shares. The resulting figures are 54.3% for Clinton and 45.7% for Trump. In the latest NBC/SurveyMonkey poll on September 25 Clinton received only 53.7%, while Trump received 46.3%.
Comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls sees Clinton at 53.8% of the two-party vote. In comparison to numbers in the NBC/SurveyMonkey poll Clinton's poll average is 0.5 percentage points lower. This margin is within the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 53.9% of the two-party vote. Hence, Polly's forecast is 0.4 points below polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore in line with the poll's margin of error.