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8 points lead for Clinton in latest NBC/SurveyMonkey poll

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NBC/SurveyMonkey released the results of a new national poll, in which respondents were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.

NBC/SurveyMonkey poll results
51

Clinton

43

Trump

Of those who answered the question, 51.0% said that they intend to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 43.0% indicated that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.

The Internet poll was carried out from October 10 to October 16 with 24804 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-0.6 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.

Putting the results in context

Individual polls can contain large errors, which is why they should be treated with caution. Rather, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

To make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, we convert them into two-party vote shares. The resulting figures are 54.3% for Clinton and 45.7% for Trump. In the latest NBC/SurveyMonkey poll on September 25 Clinton received only 53.7%, while Trump received 46.3%.

Comparison to other polls

An average of recent polls sees Clinton at 53.8% of the two-party vote. In comparison to numbers in the NBC/SurveyMonkey poll Clinton's poll average is 0.5 percentage points lower. This margin is within the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is not an outlier.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The current PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 53.9% of the two-party vote. Hence, Polly's forecast is 0.4 points below polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore in line with the poll's margin of error.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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