Results of a new national poll administered by Quinnipiac were published. The poll asked respondents for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
Quinnipiac poll results
According to the results, 50.0% of respondents said that they would give their vote to former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 44.0% said that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted via phone from October 17 to October 18 among 1007 likely voters. The sampling error is +/-3.2 percentage points, which means that the poll results for both parties' candidates do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls should be regarded with caution, since they can incorporate large errors. At least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
In order to make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, one can translate them into shares of the two-party vote. The corresponding figures are 53.2% for Clinton and 46.8% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls has Clinton at 53.6% of the two-party vote. This value is 0.4 percentage points higher than respective numbers in the Quinnipiac poll. This margin is within the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's prediction
The current PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 53.9% of the two-party vote. Hence, Polly's combined forecast is 0.7 points above polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin shows that this deviation is negligible.