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538 (polls-plus) model: Clinton is in the lead

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The 538 (polls-plus) model is included in the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will achieve 52.8% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will end up with 47.2%.

Putting the results in context

Individual models should be interpreted with caution, as they may contain large errors. Rather, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models has Clinton at 50.0% of the two-party vote. This value is 2.8 percentage points lower than respective numbers in the 538 (polls-plus) model.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The most recent PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 53.9% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 1.1 percentage points more compared to the results of the 538 (polls-plus) model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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