The 538 (polls-plus) model is included in the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will achieve 52.8% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will end up with 47.2%.
Putting the results in context
Individual models should be interpreted with caution, as they may contain large errors. Rather, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to other econometric models
An average of recent econometric models has Clinton at 50.0% of the two-party vote. This value is 2.8 percentage points lower than respective numbers in the 538 (polls-plus) model.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 53.9% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 1.1 percentage points more compared to the results of the 538 (polls-plus) model.