538 (polls-plus) model: Clinton is in the lead

The 538 (polls-plus) model is part of the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will garner 52.9% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will end up with 47.1%. In comparison, on October 19, Clinton was predicted to win 53.0% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single models, as they may incorporate large errors. Rather than trusting the results from single models, you should use combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon different methods and data.

Comparison to other econometric models

If we look at an average of econometric models, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 50.0%. This value is 2.9 percentage points lower than corresponding numbers in the 538 (polls-plus) model.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The most recent PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 53.9% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 1.0 percentage points more compared to the results of the 538 (polls-plus) model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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