CBS News/YouGov published the results of a new poll. In this poll, interviewees from Wisconsin were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
CBS News/YouGov poll results
Of those who responded, 43.0% said that they plan to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 39.0% said that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from October 5 to October 7. A total of 993 likely voters responded. The margin of error is +/-4.3 points. This means that the levels of voter support for both parties' candidates do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, a good strategy is to not put too much trust in the results of a single poll. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, one should look at combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes different methods and data.
To make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, you can translate them into two-party vote shares. This procedure yields values of 52.4% for Clinton and 47.6% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls in Wisconsin sees Clinton at 53.5% of the two-party vote. This value is 1.1 percentage points higher than her respective numbers in the CBS News/YouGov poll. This margin is within the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 52.7% of the two-party vote in Wisconsin. This means that Polly's prediction is 0.3 points above her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore in line with the poll's sampling error.