Gravis published the results of a new poll. In this poll, respondents from Wisconsin were asked for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
Gravis poll results
Of those who answered the question, 48.0% said that they are going to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 40.0% indicated that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from October 4 to October 4, among a random sample of 1102 registered voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.0 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be regarded with caution, as they may contain large biases. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, research in forecasting recommends to consult combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates different methods and data.
For the following analysis, we translate the candidates' raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. The corresponding figures are 54.6% for Clinton and 45.5% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Looking at an average of Wisconsin polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 53.6%. Relative to her numbers in the Gravis poll Clinton's poll average is 1 percentage point lower. This difference is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's forecast
The latest PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 52.7% of the two-party vote in Wisconsin. Hence, Polly's prediction is 1.9 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore within the poll's sampling error.