Elway published the results of a new poll on October 7. In this poll, respondents from Washington were asked for whom they will vote: Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.
Elway poll results
Of those who responded, 43.0% said that they will vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 24.0% said that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from August 9 to August 13, among a random sample of 500 registered voters. The error margin is +/-4.5 percentage points, which means that the poll results for both candidates differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single polls, since they can contain large errors. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, the evidence-based approach is to rely on combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
For the following analysis, we convert Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure yields figures of 64.2% for Clinton and 35.8% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
If we look at an average of Washington polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 59.1%. Relative to her numbers in the Elway poll Clinton's poll average is 5.1 percentage points lower. This margin is outside the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 58.1% of the two-party vote in Washington. This means that Polly's forecast is 6.1 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore outside the poll's sampling error.