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Virginia: DeSart & Holbrook model shows Clinton in the lead

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The DeSart & Holbrook model is part of the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 55.0% for Clinton, and 45.0% for Trump in Virginia. In comparison, on October 19 Trump was still predicted to gain 45.1% of the vote.

Historically, Virginia has been a battleground state, in which neither the Republican Party nor the Democratic Party has had overwhelming support to clinch that state's electoral college votes. This is why predictions in this state are of particular interest.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, don't put too much trust in the results of an individual econometric model. Instead of relying on results from single models, the recommended strategy consult combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that includes different methods and data.

The DeSart & Holbrook model compared with PollyVote's forecast

The most recent PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 53.1% of the two-party vote in Virginia. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 1.9 percentage points less compared to the results of the DeSart & Holbrook model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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