The DeSart & Holbrook model enters the econometric models component of the PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will achieve 54.9% of the two-party vote share in Virginia, whereas Trump will end up with 45.1%. In comparison, on October 14, Clinton was predicted to gain only 53.7% of the vote.
Historically, Virginia has been a swing state, in which neither the Democrats nor the Republicans have had overwhelming support to secure its electoral college votes. This is why forecasts here are of particular importance.
Putting the results in context
Individual models may include substantial biases, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. At least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The current PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 53.1% of the two-party vote in Virginia. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 1.8 percentage points less compared to the results of the DeSart & Holbrook model.