Utah: New UtahPolicy/Dan Jones poll has Clinton behind by 15 points
By UtahPolicy/Dan Jones released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Utah were asked for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
UtahPolicy/Dan Jones poll results
The results show that 24.0% of respondents plan to give their vote to former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 39.0% would vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out between September 1 and September 9. The sample size was 605 likely voters. The margin of error is +/-4.0 percentage points. This means that the levels of voter support for both parties' candidates differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Hence, don't be overly confident the results of a single poll. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, we recommend to consult combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that uses different methods and data.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, one can convert them into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 38.1% for Clinton and 61.9% for Trump. In the most recent UtahPolicy/Dan Jones poll on April 5 Clinton received 50.0%, while Trump received only 50.0%.
Comparison to other polls
If we look at an average of Utah polls, Trump's two-party vote share is currently at 61.5%. This value is 0.4 percentage points lower than his respective numbers in the UtahPolicy/Dan Jones poll. This deviation is within the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The most recent PollyVote anticipates Trump to gain 60.8% of the two-party vote in Utah. Hence, Polly's prediction is 1.1 points below his polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error shows that this difference is negligible.
