Results of a new poll administered by Salt Lake TribuneSalt Lake Tribune were spread. The poll asked participants from Utah for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
Salt Lake TribuneSalt Lake Tribune poll results
According to the results, 25.0% of respondents intend to vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 34.0% are going to vote for businessman Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from September 12 to September 19, among a random sample of 820 likely voters. The sampling error is +/-3.4 percentage points. This means that the poll results for the Democratic and the Republican candidate differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, since they can contain large errors. Instead of relying on results from single polls, research in forecasting recommends to use combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates different methods and data.
In order to make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, you can translate them into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure yields figures of 42.4% for Clinton and 57.6% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls in Utah sees Trump at 61.5% of the two-party vote. This value is 3.9 percentage points higher than his corresponding numbers in the Salt Lake TribuneSalt Lake Tribune poll. This margin is outside the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is an outlier.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's prediction
The latest PollyVote expects Trump to gain 60.8% of the two-party vote in Utah. This means that the PollyVote forecast is 3.2 points above his polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin suggests that this deviation is insignificant.