PPP (D) published the results of a new poll. In this poll, respondents from Utah were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
PPP (D) poll results
The results show that 33.0% of participants would cast a ballot for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 53.0% would vote for businessman Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from August 14 to August 19, among a random sample of 1018 likely voters. If one accounts for the poll's sampling error of +/-3.1 percentage points, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be regarded with caution, because they can include substantial biases. At the very least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we convert the candidates' raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This procedure results in values of 38.4% for Clinton and 61.6% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
If we look at an average of Utah polls, Trump's two-party vote share is currently at 61.5%. This value is 0.1 percentage points lower than his corresponding numbers in the PPP (D) poll. This margin is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The latest PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 60.8% of the two-party vote in Utah. That is, the PollyVote is 0.8 points below his polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore within the poll's error margin.