CBS News/YouGov published the results of a new poll. In this poll, interviewees from Utah were asked for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
CBS News/YouGov poll results
According to the results, 20.0% of respondents intend to cast a ballot for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 37.0% are going to vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from October 12 to October 14, among a random sample of 951 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-5.7 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Single polls may incorporate substantial biases, which is why they should be treated with caution. At least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we translate Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 35.1% for Clinton and 64.9% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls in Utah has Trump at 61.5% of the two-party vote. This value is 3.4 percentage points lower than his respective numbers in the CBS News/YouGov poll. This difference is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 60.8% of the two-party vote in Utah. That is, Polly's combined forecast is 4.1 points below his polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore within the poll's sampling error.