Results of a new poll conducted by Monmouth were released. The poll asked interviewees from Missouri for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
Monmouth poll results
According to the results, 41.0% of interviewees will vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 46.0% are going to vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from October 9 to October 11. A total of 406 likely voters responded. There is a sampling error of +/-4.9 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls often incorporate large errors, and should be interpreted with caution. Rather, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, you can convert them into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 47.1% for Clinton and 52.9% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls in Missouri has Trump at 54.7% of the two-party vote. This value is 1.8 percentage points higher than his respective numbers in the Monmouth poll. This deviation is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The most recent PollyVote forecasts Trump to gain 53.3% of the two-party vote in Missouri. Hence, the combined PollyVote is 0.4 points above his polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin shows that this difference is negligible.