Siena poll in New York: Trump trails by 24 points
By On October 10, Siena released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from New York were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
Siena poll results
Of those who answered the question, 54.0% said that they will vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 30.0% said that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted between October 13 and October 17. The sample size was 611 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-4.6 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be interpreted with caution, because they often incorporate large errors. At least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we convert Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 64.3% for Clinton and 35.7% for Trump. On March 3 Clinton obtained only 62.6% in the Siena poll and Trump obtained 37.4%.
Results compared to other polls
If we look at an average of New York polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 62.5%. This value is 1.9 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the Siena poll. This margin is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's forecast
The latest PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 62.1% of the two-party vote in New York. Hence, the PollyVote forecast is 2.2 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus within the poll's error margin.
