On October 12, Remington Research (R) released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Missouri were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
Remington Research (R) poll results
Of those who replied, 42.0% said that they would vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 47.0% revealed that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted between October 9 and October 11. The sample size was 2171 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-2.1 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, you should not be overly confident the results of an individual poll. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, forecasting research recommends to consult combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
For the following analysis, we translate Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure yields values of 47.2% for Clinton and 52.8% for Trump. In the most recent Remington Research (R) poll on September 2 Clinton obtained only 44.7%, while Trump obtained 55.3%.
Comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls in Missouri has Trump at 54.7% of the two-party vote. Relative to his numbers in the Remington Research (R) poll Trump's poll average is 1.9 percentage points higher. This margin is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's forecast
The most recent PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 53.3% of the two-party vote in Missouri. Hence, the PollyVote forecast is 0.5 points above his polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error shows that this difference is negligible.