Bloomberg released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Pennsylvania were asked for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
Bloomberg poll results
The results show that 51.0% of respondents plan to vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 42.0% plan to vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from October 7 to October 11 among 806 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.5 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls may incorporate large biases, and should be treated with caution. At least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we convert Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. The corresponding figures are 54.8% for Clinton and 45.2% for Trump.
Results compared to other polls
If we look at an average of Pennsylvania polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 53.7%. This value is 1.1 percentage points lower than her corresponding numbers in the Bloomberg poll. This margin is within the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's forecast
The latest PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 53.8% of the two-party vote in Pennsylvania. Hence, Polly's prediction is 1.0 point below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus in line with the poll's error margin.