Pennsylvania: DeSart & Holbrook model shows Clinton in the lead
The DeSart & Holbrook model released an updated prediction of the election outcome. It currently predicts a major vote share of 54.7% for Clinton, and 45.3% for Trump in Pennsylvania.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, models are subject to bias. In general, one should not put too much trust in the results of an individual econometric model. At the very least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The current PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 53.8% of the two-party vote in Pennsylvania. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 0.9 percentage points less compared to the results of the DeSart & Holbrook model.