Pennsylvania: DeSart & Holbrook model shows Clinton in the lead

The DeSart & Holbrook model is part of the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will garner 54.7% of the two-party vote share in Pennsylvania, while Trump will win 45.3%. In comparison, on October 14 Trump was predicted to garner 45.3% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. Hence, one should not have too much faith in the results of a single econometric model. At the very least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

The DeSart & Holbrook model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast

The latest PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 53.7% of the two-party vote in Pennsylvania. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 1.0 percentage points less compared to the results of the DeSart & Holbrook model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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