Oregon: DeSart & Holbrook model shows Clinton in the lead

The DeSart & Holbrook model provided an updated prediction of the election result. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 56.0% for Clinton, and 44.0% for Trump in Oregon. In comparison, on October 19 Trump was predicted to garner 43.8% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single models, because they can contain large errors. Instead of relying on results from single models, the best practice scientific advice is to look at combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

The DeSart & Holbrook model compared with PollyVote's forecast

The current PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 57.2% of the two-party vote in Oregon. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 1.2 percentage points more compared to the results of the DeSart & Holbrook model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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