KATU-TV/SurveyUSAKATU-TV/SUSA published the results of a new poll. In this poll, interviewees from Oregon were asked for whom they will vote: Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.
KATU-TV/SurveyUSAKATU-TV/SUSA poll results
Of those who replied, 48.0% said that they are going to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 38.0% indicated that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from October 10 to October 12. A total of 654 likely voters responded. The margin of error is +/-3.9 points. This means that the poll results for the two candidates differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single polls, because they can incorporate large errors. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, the best practice scientific advice is to rely on combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on different methods and data.
For the following comparison, we translate Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 55.8% for Clinton and 44.2% for Trump.
Results compared to other polls
Clinton can currently count on 56.0% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent polls in Oregon. This value is 0.2 percentage points higher than her corresponding numbers in the KATU-TV/SurveyUSAKATU-TV/SUSA poll. This difference is within the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 57.4% of the two-party vote in Oregon. That is, the PollyVote is 1.6 points above her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore within the poll's sampling error.