On October 12, OpinionWorks released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Maryland were asked for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
OpinionWorks poll results
Of those who responded, 54.0% said that they are going to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 25.0% indicated that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from August 18 to August 30 with 754 likely voters. The sampling error is +/-3.6 percentage points. This means that the poll results for Trump and Clinton differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Single polls can contain substantial biases, and should be interpreted with caution. Rather, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, we translate them into two-party vote shares. This procedure yields figures of 68.4% for Clinton and 31.7% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
If we look at an average of Maryland polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 69.5%. Compared to her numbers in the OpinionWorks poll Clinton's poll average is 1.1 percentage points better. This difference is within the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 64.8% of the two-party vote in Maryland. That is, Polly's combined forecast is 3.6 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error reveals that this difference is significant.