Emerson released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Ohio were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
Ohio is traditionally a purple state, where the candidates of both major parties have historically achieved similar levels of support among voters. Therefore, the election outcome here is viewed as crucial in determining the overall result of the presidential election.
Emerson poll results
Of those who answered the question, 45.0% said that they are going to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 43.0% indicated that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from October 10 to October 12 with 600 likely voters. The sampling error is +/-3.9 percentage points, which means that the levels of voter support for both parties' candidates do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Hence, you should not rely too much on the results of an individual poll. Instead of relying on results from single polls, the best practice scientific advice is to rely on combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates different methods and data.
For the following comparison, we translate Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. The corresponding figures are 51.1% for Clinton and 48.9% for Trump. In the most recent Emerson poll on August 27 Clinton received only 50.0%, while Trump received only 0.0%.
The poll compared with PollyVote's prediction
The most recent PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 51.2% of the two-party vote in Ohio. Hence, Polly's combined forecast is 0.1 points above her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore in line with the poll's sampling error.