Quinnipiac published the results of a new poll. In this poll, participants from Ohio were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
Historically, Ohio has been a swing state, in which neither of the two major parties has had overwhelming support to clinch its electoral college votes. Hence, forecasts here are of particular value.
Quinnipiac poll results
The results show that 47.0% of interviewees would give their vote to former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 48.0% would vote for businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from October 10 to October 16. A total of 624 likely voters responded. There is a sampling error of +/-3.9 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be regarded with caution, since they can contain substantial errors. Rather than relying on results from single polls, forecasting research recommends to look at combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
For the following analysis, we convert the candidates' raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure results in figures of 49.5% for Clinton and 50.5% for Trump. For comparison: Only 47.9% was gained by Clinton in the Quinnipiac poll on August 7, for Trump this result was only 0.0%.
The poll compared with PollyVote's prediction
The latest PollyVote forecasts Trump to gain 49.0% of the two-party vote in Ohio. That is, Polly's combined forecast is 1.5 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus in line with the poll's error margin.