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Ohio: DeSart & Holbrook model shows Clinton in the lead

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The DeSart & Holbrook model is included in the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 51.5% for Clinton, and 48.6% for Trump in Ohio. In comparison, on October 14 Trump was predicted to collect 47.7% of the vote.

Historically, Ohio has been a swing state, in which neither the GOP nor the Democrats have had overwhelming support to secure its electoral college votes. Hence, forecasts here are of particular value.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, you should not have too much faith in the results of a single econometric model. Instead of relying on results from single models, the best practice scientific advice is to consult combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The latest PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 51.1% of the two-party vote in Ohio. The results of the DeSart & Holbrook model for Clinton are thus 0.4 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Ohio.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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