The DeSart & Holbrook model provided an updated forecast of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will receive 51.2% of the two-party vote share in Ohio, while Trump will end up with 48.8%. In comparison, on October 19, Clinton was predicted to achieve 51.5% of the vote.
In Ohio, the popular vote is often close. This is why the state is commonly referred to as a battleground state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, models are subject to bias. As a result, a good strategy is to not be overly confident the results of an individual econometric model. At least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The most recent PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 51.0% of the two-party vote in Ohio. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 0.2 percentage points less compared to the results of the DeSart & Holbrook model.