Ohio: DeSart & Holbrook model shows Clinton in the lead

The DeSart & Holbrook model provided an updated forecast of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will receive 51.2% of the two-party vote share in Ohio, while Trump will end up with 48.8%. In comparison, on October 19, Clinton was predicted to achieve 51.5% of the vote.

In Ohio, the popular vote is often close. This is why the state is commonly referred to as a battleground state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. As a result, a good strategy is to not be overly confident the results of an individual econometric model. At least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The most recent PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 51.0% of the two-party vote in Ohio. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 0.2 percentage points less compared to the results of the DeSart & Holbrook model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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