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Ohio: DeSart & Holbrook model shows Clinton in the lead

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The DeSart & Holbrook model enters the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will garner 51.9% of the two-party vote share in Ohio, while Trump will end up with 48.1%. In comparison, on October 14 Trump was predicted to gain 47.7% of the vote.

Historically, Ohio has been a purple state, in which no single party has had overwhelming support to secure that state's electoral college votes. Therefore, forecasts in this state are of particular interest.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single models, as they often incorporate large errors. Instead of trusting the results from single models, the best practice is to rely on combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on different methods and data.

The DeSart & Holbrook model in comparison with PollyVote's prediction

The current PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 51.2% of the two-party vote in Ohio. The results of the DeSart & Holbrook model for Clinton are thus 0.7 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Ohio.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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