CNN-ORC published the results of a new poll. In this poll, respondents from Ohio were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
Ohio is traditionally a battleground state, where the Democrats and the GOP have often achieved similar voter support. Hence, the election outcome in that state is regarded important in determining who will win the majority of electoral votes.
CNN-ORC poll results
The results show that 47.0% of participants would cast a ballot for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 50.0% would vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out between October 10 and October 15. The sample size was 744 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.5 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls should be interpreted with caution, as they can include large biases. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, forecasting research recommends to rely on combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
For the following comparison, we translate Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 48.5% for Clinton and 51.6% for Trump. In the most recent CNN-ORC poll on March 6 Clinton received 53.8%, while Trump received only 46.2%.
The poll compared with PollyVote's prediction
The current PollyVote expects Trump to gain 49.0% of the two-party vote in Ohio. That is, the PollyVote forecast is 2.6 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error suggests that this difference is insignificant.