NBC-WSJ-Marist published the results of a new poll. In this poll, interviewees from Ohio were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
Ohio is traditionally a swing state, where the Democrats and the GOP have historically achieved similar voter support. This is why the election outcome here is viewed as important in determining which party will win the majority of electoral votes.
NBC-WSJ-Marist poll results
According to the results, both candidates have the same level of support, each with 45.0% of the vote.
This poll was conducted from October 10 to October 12, among a random sample of 724 likely voters. If one accounts for the poll's margin of error of +/-3.6 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be interpreted with caution, because they can include large biases. Rather, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, one can translate them into shares of the two-party vote. The results of the actual poll mean 50.0 % for Clinton and 50.0 % for Trump for the two-party vote share. In the latest NBC-WSJ-Marist poll on August 7 Clinton received only 46.9%, while Trump received only 0.0%.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 51.0% and Trump 49.0% of the two-party vote in Ohio. Clinton has 1 percentage points less when the results of the poll are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast for Ohio. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error suggests that this difference is significant.