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Ohio: Clinton tied with Trump in new NBC-WSJ-Marist poll


Results of a new poll conducted by NBC-WSJ-Marist were spread. The poll asked participants from Ohio for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.

Historically, Ohio has been a battleground state, in which neither the Republican Party nor the Democratic Party has had overwhelming support to clinch that state's electoral college votes. This is why forecasts here are of particular interest.

NBC-WSJ-Marist poll results




According to the results, both candidates can draw on equal levels of support, each with 45.0% of the vote.

The poll was conducted from October 10 to October 12. A total of 724 likely voters responded. The sampling error is +/-3.6 points, which means that the levels of voter support for both candidates do not differ significantly.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, as they sometimes incorporate large errors. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, the recommended strategy use combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates different methods and data.

For the following analysis, we convert Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. The results of the actual poll mean 50.0 % for Clinton and 50.0 % for Trump concerning the two-party vote share. On August 7 Clinton obtained only 46.9% in the NBC-WSJ-Marist poll and Trump obtained only 0.0%.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 51.2% and Trump 48.8% of the two-party vote in Ohio. Clinton has 1.2 percentage points less when the results of the poll are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast for Ohio. The PollyVote forecast is therefore outside the poll's error margin.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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