CNN-ORC released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from North Carolina were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
CNN-ORC poll results
The results show that 50.0% of interviewees plan to cast a ballot for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 48.0% are going to vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from October 10 to October 15. A total of 788 likely voters responded. There is a sampling error of +/-3.5 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls should be regarded with caution, as they can incorporate substantial errors. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, the best practice scientific advice is to look at combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
For the following comparison, we translate Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. The respective figures are 51.0% for Clinton and 49.0% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls in North Carolina has Clinton at 51.8% of the two-party vote. This value is 0.8 percentage points higher than her respective numbers in the CNN-ORC poll. This difference is within the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 50.3% of the two-party vote in North Carolina. That is, Polly's prediction is 0.7 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error shows that this difference is insignificant.