On October 6, Marquette released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Wisconsin were asked for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
Marquette poll results
Of those who answered the question, 46.0% said that they plan to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 42.0% declared that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from October 6 to October 9 with 878 likely voters. The margin of error is +/-3.9 percentage points. This means that the levels of voter support for the Democratic and the Republican candidate do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single polls, since they may contain large errors. Rather, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we convert Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. The respective figures are 52.3% for Clinton and 47.7% for Trump. For comparison: 56.0% was gained by Clinton in the Marquette poll on March 28, for Trump this number was only 44.1%.
Results compared to other polls
Clinton is currently at 53.6% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent polls in Wisconsin. Relative to her numbers in the Marquette poll Clinton's poll average is 1.3 percentage points better. This difference is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 52.7% of the two-party vote in Wisconsin. This means that the PollyVote is 0.4 points above her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin reveals that this difference is insignificant.