LA Times published the results of a new national poll. In this poll, respondents were asked for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
LA Times poll results
According to the results, 44.0% of respondents said that they intend to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 45.0% intend to vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from October 10 to October 16. A total of 2975 respondents responded. Taking into account the poll's margin of error of +/-4.5 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls should be regarded with caution, because they often contain large biases. Instead of relying on results from single polls, we recommend to consult combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that includes different methods and data.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, we convert them into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 49.4% for Clinton and 50.6% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
If we look at an average of polls, Trump's current two-party vote share is at 46.5%. In comparison to numbers in the LA Times poll Trump's poll average is 4.1 percentage points lower. This margin is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's prediction
The latest PollyVote anticipates Trump to gain 46.0% of the two-party vote. Hence, Polly's forecast is 4.6 points below polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus outside the poll's sampling error.