The DeSart & Holbrook model enters the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will receive 53.3% of the two-party vote share in New Hampshire, whereas Trump will end up with 46.7%. In comparison, on October 14, Clinton was predicted to gain 53.4% of the vote.
In New Hampshire, the popular vote is usually decided by a narrow margin. This is the reason why the state is commonly regarded as a battleground state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, models are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, a good strategy is to not focus too much on the results of a single econometric model. Instead of trusting the results from single models, research in forecasting recommends to rely on combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
The DeSart & Holbrook model compared with PollyVote's prediction
The most recent PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 52.7% of the two-party vote in New Hampshire. The results of the DeSart & Holbrook model for Clinton are thus 0.6 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in New Hampshire.