Economist released the results of a new national poll, in which respondents were asked for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
Economist poll results
According to the results, 47.0% of respondents are going to cast a ballot for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 43.0% would vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from October 15 to October 18, among a random sample of 925 participants. There is a sampling error of +/-3.9 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single polls, since they may contain large errors. At least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
In order to make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, one can translate them into two-party vote shares. The corresponding figures are 52.2% for Clinton and 47.8% for Trump. For comparison: 52.8% was gained by Clinton in the Economist poll on October 3, for Trump this result was only 47.3%.
Results in comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls sees Clinton at 53.6% of the two-party vote. Relative to numbers in the Economist poll Clinton's poll average is 1.4 percentage points better. This margin is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's forecast
The latest PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 53.8% of the two-party vote. Hence, Polly's forecast is 1.6 points above polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin shows that this deviation is insignificant.