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New Civitas (R) poll in North Carolina: Trump and Clinton virtually tied

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Civitas (R) published the results of a new poll. In this poll, participants from North Carolina were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.

Civitas (R) poll results
45

Clinton

43

Trump

According to the results, 45.0% of respondents said that they plan to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 43.0% plan to vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.

The poll was conducted from October 14 to October 17 with 600 likely voters. The sampling error is +/-4.0 points, which means that the poll results for Clinton and Trump do not differ significantly.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single polls, as they often incorporate large errors. At least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

To make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, we convert them into shares of the two-party vote. The resulting figures are 51.1% for Clinton and 48.9% for Trump.

Results vs. other polls

An average of recent polls in North Carolina sees Clinton at 51.5% of the two-party vote. Relative to her numbers in the Civitas (R) poll Clinton's poll average is 0.4 percentage points better. This margin is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The current PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 50.2% of the two-party vote in North Carolina. This means that the PollyVote forecast is 0.9 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore within the poll's sampling error.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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