New Civitas (R) poll in North Carolina: Trump and Clinton virtually tied
By Civitas (R) published the results of a new poll. In this poll, participants from North Carolina were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
Civitas (R) poll results
According to the results, 45.0% of respondents said that they plan to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 43.0% plan to vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from October 14 to October 17 with 600 likely voters. The sampling error is +/-4.0 points, which means that the poll results for Clinton and Trump do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single polls, as they often incorporate large errors. At least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
To make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, we convert them into shares of the two-party vote. The resulting figures are 51.1% for Clinton and 48.9% for Trump.
Results vs. other polls
An average of recent polls in North Carolina sees Clinton at 51.5% of the two-party vote. Relative to her numbers in the Civitas (R) poll Clinton's poll average is 0.4 percentage points better. This margin is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The current PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 50.2% of the two-party vote in North Carolina. This means that the PollyVote forecast is 0.9 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore within the poll's sampling error.
