CBS News/YouGov published the results of a new poll. In this poll, respondents from Nevada were asked for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
Historically, Nevada has been a purple state, in which neither the Republican Party nor the Democratic Party has had overwhelming support to secure its electoral college votes. This is why predictions here are of particular value.
CBS News/YouGov poll results
The results show that 46.0% of respondents are going to cast a ballot for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 40.0% would vote for businessman Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from October 12 to October 14, among a random sample of 996 likely voters. The error margin is +/-4.5 percentage points, which means that the poll results for both parties' candidates do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single polls, as they often contain large errors. Rather than relying on results from single polls, the recommended strategy consult combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that uses different methods and data.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, we translate them into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure results in values of 53.5% for Clinton and 46.5% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Clinton can currently count on 51.6% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent polls in Nevada. Compared to her numbers in the CBS News/YouGov poll Clinton's poll average is 1.9 percentage points lower. This margin is within the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's prediction
The current PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 51.4% of the two-party vote in Nevada. This means that the PollyVote forecast is 2.1 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus within the poll's margin of error.