8 News NOW – Las Vegas8 News NOW published the results of a new poll. In this poll, participants from Nevada were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
Historically, Nevada has been a swing state, in which neither the Republican Party nor the Democratic Party has had overwhelming support to clinch that state's electoral college votes. Therefore, forecasts here are of particular value.
8 News NOW - Las Vegas8 News NOW poll results
According to the results, 43.0% of interviewees indicated that they would give their vote to former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 41.0% intend to vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from October 10 to October 13 with 600 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-4.0 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls should be regarded with caution, because they often include large errors. At the very least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
In order to make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, one can translate them into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 51.2% for Clinton and 48.8% for Trump.
Results compared to other polls
An average of recent polls in Nevada has Clinton at 51.6% of the two-party vote. This value is 0.4 percentage points higher than her respective numbers in the 8 News NOW – Las Vegas8 News NOW poll. This difference is within the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's prediction
The current PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 51.4% of the two-party vote in Nevada. This means that the PollyVote is 0.2 points above her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore in line with the poll's error margin.