NBC-WSJ-Marist published the results of a new poll. In this poll, respondents from North Carolina were asked for whom they will vote: Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.
NBC-WSJ-Marist poll results
The results show that 48.0% of participants indicated that they would give their vote to former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 43.0% plan to vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from October 10 to October 12 among 743 likely voters. Taking into account the poll's margin of error of +/-3.6 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls often incorporate large biases, which is why they should be treated with caution. At least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, one can convert them into two-party vote shares. This procedure yields figures of 52.8% for Clinton and 47.3% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
Looking at an average of North Carolina polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 51.9%. Compared to her numbers in the NBC-WSJ-Marist poll Clinton's poll average is 0.9 percentage points worse. This margin is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The latest PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 50.3% of the two-party vote in North Carolina. That is, the PollyVote forecast is 2.5 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin indicates that this deviation is insignificant.