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NBC-WSJ-Marist poll in North Carolina: Trump trails by 5 points


NBC-WSJ-Marist published the results of a new poll. In this poll, respondents from North Carolina were asked for whom they will vote: Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.

NBC-WSJ-Marist poll results




The results show that 48.0% of participants indicated that they would give their vote to former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 43.0% plan to vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.

The poll was carried out from October 10 to October 12 among 743 likely voters. Taking into account the poll's margin of error of +/-3.6 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.

Putting the results in context

Individual polls often incorporate large biases, which is why they should be treated with caution. At least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, one can convert them into two-party vote shares. This procedure yields figures of 52.8% for Clinton and 47.3% for Trump.

Results in comparison to other polls

Looking at an average of North Carolina polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 51.9%. Compared to her numbers in the NBC-WSJ-Marist poll Clinton's poll average is 0.9 percentage points worse. This margin is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The latest PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 50.3% of the two-party vote in North Carolina. That is, the PollyVote forecast is 2.5 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin indicates that this deviation is insignificant.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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