On October 10, Emerson released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Missouri were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
Emerson poll results
Of those who responded, 34.0% said that they are going to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 47.0% indicated that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was in the field between September 9 and September 13. The sample size was 600 likely voters. The margin of error is +/-3.9 points. This means that the poll results for the two candidates differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. As a result, don't focus too much on the results of an individual poll. At least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we translate the candidates' raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This procedure yields values of 42.0% for Clinton and 58.0% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Trump currently achieves 54.7% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent polls in Missouri. Compared to his numbers in the Emerson poll Trump's poll average is 3.3 percentage points worse. This difference is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's forecast
The current PollyVote forecasts Trump to gain 53.4% of the two-party vote in Missouri. This means that the combined PollyVote is 4.6 points below his polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin indicates that this difference is significant.