On October 12, Goucher CollegeGoucher College released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Maryland were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
Goucher CollegeGoucher College poll results
Of those who replied, 58.0% said that they intend to vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 25.0% revealed that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from September 17 to September 20. A total of 514 likely voters responded. There is a sampling error of +/-4.3 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Single polls may incorporate substantial errors, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. At least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we convert Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 69.9% for Clinton and 30.1% for Trump.
Results vs. other polls
Clinton currently runs at 69.4% of the two-party vote in an average of recent polls in Maryland. Relative to her numbers in the Goucher CollegeGoucher College poll Clinton's poll average is 0.5 percentage points worse. This deviation is within the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The latest PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 64.8% of the two-party vote in Maryland. That is, the PollyVote forecast is 5.1 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus outside the poll's margin of error.