JMC Analytics published the results of a new poll on October 12. In this poll, respondents from Louisiana were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
JMC Analytics poll results
Of those who responded, 38.0% said that they will vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 45.0% said that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from October 11 to October 15. A total of 800 likely voters responded. There is a sampling error of +/-3.5 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, because they can contain large errors. At least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we translate Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 45.8% for Clinton and 54.2% for Trump. On September 24 Clinton obtained only 43.8% in the JMC Analytics poll and Trump obtained 56.3%.
Comparison to other polls
If we look at an average of Louisiana polls, Trump's current two-party vote share is at 57.0%. This value is 2.8 percentage points higher than his respective numbers in the JMC Analytics poll. This margin is within the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 58.6% of the two-party vote in Louisiana. This means that Polly's forecast is 4.4 points above his polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus outside the poll's margin of error.